УГРОЗЫ ЧЕЛОВЕЧЕСТВУ, ТРЕБУЮЩИЕ ОБНОВЛЕНИЯ В РОССИЙСКИХ ОТНОШЕНИЯХ

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Introduction

Relations between the United States and Russia were formally established in 1809. Although relations broke down due to internal and external happenings, on December 25, 1991, the United States recognized the Russian Federation as the successor to the Soviet Union and established diplomatic relations on December 31, 1991. The essence of establishing diplomatic relations between countries is typically to ensure that affairs between them are conducted peacefully (Cooper, A. F., Heine, J., & Thakur, R. 2013). These affairs may range from the promotion of political, economic, cultural, or scientific relations.

The United States and Russia have partnered on many occasions to bring relief and support to many countries facing abject poverty and conflicts. The U.S.-Soviet Alliance of 1941–1945¹ was a great alliance that secured the defeat of the Nazi Germany. The two countries have been able to use their mutual interest in the reduction of nuclear stockpiles and in February 2021, the two countries extended a crucial nuclear arms control treaty until 2026². Also, their cooperation has foiled many terrorist attacks and the growth of terrorist groups.

Whiles these partnerships have led to many successful outcomes, in contemporary times their relations have had a nosedive and continue unabated.

Issues such as the accusation of Russia’s interference in the 2016 US presidential elections; the use of military force in Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea; the deployment of nuclear missiles in Europe; the NATO expansion controversy, the Skripals³ dilemma and the suspension of the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) by both parties has further widens future relations. These issues provide the basis to reflect on the ability of the world to tackle the rising and changing phase of global threats. In this regard, the study sets as its objectives an examination of the threats. The argument in this study is that these threats would be tackled much better if there is an improved relation between the U.S and Russia. Realizing the successes, they have achieved in previous partnerships.

Before delving into these issues, it is instructive to examine some of the areas that their cooperation has brought about success and stability to the international community. The peculiar characteristics of such relations and how this form of partnership may help in tackling the rising level of global challenges in the 21^st century.

Successes of the Relation

Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

The proliferation of nuclear weapons and the non-peaceful use of it could lead to a nuclear war that would bring pain and devastation to mankind. The treaty of the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons⁴ indicates states responsibility to prevent the wider dissemination of nuclear weapons and co-operate in facilitating the application of International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards on peaceful nuclear activities. Nonetheless, some countries have been reported to developing nuclear weapons without the knowledge of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).  The discreetness of the act and the fear that such countries may use it for non-peaceful purpose has caused fear and panic among several actors in the international community.  

The international community has done excellent job in bringing acts such as these to light and control, but in period of difficulty, it relies on the two major nuclear weapon states, the Russian Federation and the United States. Each having an estimated global nuclear warhead inventory of 6375 and 5800 respectively. With the world’s nuclear armed total of nearly 13,500.⁵ Examples of such difficult moments where the two countries cooperated effectively to control the proliferation of nuclear weapon was the case of Iran and North Korea. On Iran, they cooperated on signing the UNSCR 1929⁶ at its 633th meeting on 9, June 2010, which placed a comprehensive sanction against Iran. On North Korea, they jointly supported the UNSCR Resolution 1874⁷ in expressing the gravest concern at the nuclear test conducted by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (“the DPRK”) on 25 May 2009 (local time) in violation of resolution 1718 (2006).

Also, their cooperation in signing the Plutonium Disposition Agreement, which committed both countries to dispose sixty-eight metric tons of weapons grade plutonium and the recent ratification of the new start treaty agreement in 2021. These successes in nuclear cooperation have not only brought stability in the regions of concern, but to the whole international community.

Coordinated Effort to Prevent Growth of Terrorist Groups and Terrorist Activities

Over the years, activities of terrorist have ruined lives, caused fear and impeded development and growth. Their activities are irrespective of national borders and persons. Over the past two decades the activities of terrorist have reached as far as the United States, Russia, Africa etc. In the United States, the September 11^{th 8} terrorist attack brought havoc and devastation to many Americans. Russia has witnessed numerous terrorist attacks⁹. In February 6, 2004, a rush-hour blast killed at least 30 people and injured 70 on a metro train in Moscow. In Africa, the activities of Boko-Haram¹⁰, a terrorist organization have abducted over 1,000 children and killed more than 2,000 teachers and civilians. Terrorists have downed passenger planes and carried out attacks against rail systems elsewhere in the world—including in Britain, Egypt, India, Russia, and Spain—since the 9/11 attacks¹¹.

Combating terrorism is not easy. It is one that demands effective planning and collaboration. The September 11^th terrorist attack triggered an unexpected rapprochement between the United States and the Russian Federation. Russia joined the US-led coalition and supported Operation Enduring Freedom (Petykowski, 2004). Russia provided 30 percent of the fuel for American planes and expanded the northern distribution network which allowed for thirty-five thousand American soldiers to fly to the war in Afghanistan (McFaul, 2019). In 2017, the Kremlin gave information about how the CIA helped foiled a terrorist attack in St. Petersburg¹². The US and Russia continue to increase awareness and a sense of urgency concerning the threat from terrorists conducting a nuclear attack.

Breakthrough in Biomedical Research and Public Health

The wellbeing of an individual continues to be the greatest concern for governments globally. Not in the fact that individuals are no more capable of taking care of themselves, but rather, the challenges pose by new forms of threat to their health is one that transcends their abilities. Thus, resilience has become the greatest asset for individuals, if they choose to cope in an environment and realize their aspirations and satisfy needs¹³.

The attainment of total wellbeing (health), and not necessarily the absence of illness has been made possible over the years by the successful collaboration between Russia and US (Frist, 2010).  This legacy of accomplishment includes the major gains globally in polio and smallpox eradication. The Sabin polio vaccine was developed through the efforts of American and Russian scientists. This essential collaboration leading to the eradication of smallpox and success in public health would not have been possible if there was high tension between the two countries. In recent time, the absence of such collaboration between the two countries has impacted the ability of the international community to tackle events such as the Covid-19 pandemic in earnest.

In a nutshell, the successes of the cooperation and the call for improvement in relations should not be a barrier for the two countries from pursuing their individual economic and military interest. However, renewal and improvement in US-Russia relations is a win for the international community and global security. Amid rising level of threat¹⁴ in the form of global conflicts; climate change; cyber threat and the recent Covid-19 pandemic, multilateral diplomacy and most importantly cooperation between US-Russia is needed more than ever in tackling these threats.   

Burning reasons for reset in US-Russia relations

Looking at the enormous benefits that come with good relations between the US and Russia, most incoming presidents try to reset relations¹⁵. Cardinal among them is the Obama reset policy towards Russia (McFaul 2018).  This reset policy led to a multilateral cooperation that concluded the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran. This pact was able to stabilize the region until recent disagreements. This paper therefore postulates the need for a reset in relations to better tackle the following rising threats. And that failure and or departure from repairing relations may not only impact the two countries, but global security and stability.  

Climate Change

The activities of man continue to pose challenge to our survival. Our survival now depends on how best we can work together to reduce the rate of carbon emissions and enhance carbon sequestration by forest and other ecosystem. The rise in global temperature has caused flooding in Europe and America. Intense storms washed away cars and houses and killed about 196 people in Germany and 31 in Belgium. In America severe storm left thousands¹⁶ without power in Florida.  According to the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, by 2100, flood damage on the continent could cost as much as €48 billion per year if nothing more is done to prepare, and the number of people affected could more than double to some 350,000. Furthermore, the grounding of a cargo ship in the Suez Canal that disrupted international trade for six days in March exposed in the fragility of the global supply chain. As engineers tried to free the wedged 1,300-foot vessel, the costs ticked upward, amounting to an estimated $9.6 billion¹⁷ a day in lost trade. Some scholars have been able to segregate the effects of climate change and have indicated the various missing impacts (Tol, 2009). Therefore, it is not surprising that the recent findings¹⁸ by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), warns of inability to limit global warming to close to 1.5 degrees Celsius or even 2 degrees in the next two decades without immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. According to World Bank, by 2050, over 143 million¹⁹ people would be forced to migrate due to climate change.  The question now is, amid all these threats what has become of the Paris climate accord²⁰? Are countries willing to cooperate in saving humanity from these threats?

The four economies that lead in total carbon dioxide emissions are China, USA, India and Russia. The withdrawal of US by Donald Trump from the Paris Climate Accord impacted the mutual strength of the accord. Member countries were more critical on the extent to which member countries reciprocate others’ promises and contributions (Sælen, 2020). This work argues that the commitment of Russia and US to the accord would influence the decision of member countries and vice versa. Recognizing the fall in relations between the United States and China and the rise in mutual understanding and relationship between Russia and China, Russia could use this advantage to seek China’s commitment towards the accord. Ultimately, recognizing the technological know-how and space exploration of both countries, their partnership would enhance satellite monitoring of emissions and removal of greenhouse gases.  This unique partnership is needed urgently to address the increasing climate challenge.

Cyber security

Advancements in technology has led to improvement in the progress and survival of society (Brown & Eckersley, 2020). From improvement in communication to medicine and commerce. Nonetheless, this progress comes with it grave challenges to state and organizations. Technological advancement is continuous and ubiquitous. It impacts our lives and it has made us more dependent on its features and changes. The growing number of users of the internet and the minimal level of regulation has led to infiltration of criminal networks whose activities are difficult to track and prevented. The development of new wireless technological gadgets and applications and the increase in the speed of the internet has created a new battleground in cyberspace. As a special challenge to international security, cyber terrorism arises. Cyber-attack, whether it happens as a conflict between states, a terrorist or a criminal act, is an attack in cyberspace with the aim of compromising a computer system or network, but also of compromising physical systems. As it was in the case of Colonial Pipeline, an American oil pipeline system that originates in Houston, Texas, and carries gasoline and jet fuel mainly to the Southeastern United States. Also, attack on JBS²¹, the world's largest meat processing company.

According to the Cyber Attack Trends: 2021 Mid-Year Report, in the first six months of 2021, global ransomware volume reached an unprecedented 304.7 million attempted attacks. It further stated that, the U.S. recorded far and away the most ransomware attacks²². The United States continue to criticize Russia for its inability to curtail cyber-attacks. These continue to ramp up tensions between Washington and Moscow.

Realizing the damaging effect of cyber-attack on states, international organizations and critical infrastructure, strategic advantage no longer lies in the fighting power or geographical location, but in the information and knowledge. International cooperation and intelligence sharing are essential for an effective prevention of cyber threats.

International conflict and Terrorism

The effects of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) linger on. The impact has further widened unemployment and inequality (Clark et al., 2020) and especially, unemployment among minority groups (Couch et al. 2020). Bong et al. - Anesthesia & Analgesia (2020) noted the devasting impact of Covid-19 in low- and middle-income countries. When individuals are not able to provide the necessities of life for themselves and their families, it triggers violence and quickly escalates to civil unrest and political violence. To mitigate civil unrest and political violence, several economic and social measures have been adopted by governments across the globe. These measures cover stimulus spending in the case of the U. S²³ and Canada, to the provision of free electricity and water in the case of Ghana²⁴. Composition of spending varies between advanced and developing economies.

This pent-up fear of violence erupting as a result of hardships of Covid-19 and ongoing conflicts in countries like Syria, Afghanistan, the flare-up in Israel-Palestine, Yemen and spots of terrorism in Pakistan and Iran pose a threat for international and global politics. Although there has been a decline of war deaths since 1946, conflict and violence are currently on the rise^[25], with many conflicts today waged between non-state actors such as political militias, criminal, and international terrorist groups. The ongoing Syrian civil war has claimed over 200,000 casualties, including over 8,000 documented killings of children under eighteen years of age.²⁶ In a country of approximately 22 million people, the bloody and prolonged conflict has resulted in 7.6 million internally displaced persons and an additional 3.2 million refugees, as well as approximately 12.2 million people (more than 1 in 2 Syrians) in need of humanitarian aid to survive²⁷.

Russia and the United States continue to look for solutions to end the Syrian civil war, which has been defined as the worst humanitarian disaster since the end of the cold war²⁸. Although challenges exist, it is imperative for the two to look beyond their interest and forge a united voice in ending this crisis. A stable, prosperous Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen, Iraq and Iran and many other pockets of conflicts across the globe would serve Russian and American interests in counterterrorism, counternarcotic, and regional stability. 

Conclusion

The current status of US-Russia relations is at its lowest point since the end of the Cold War, but that does not mean the relationship must remain adversarial. Cooperation should be pursued where possible for the benefit of world security and to reduce the risk that prolonged hostility devolves into an armed war that helps no one.

The relationship between the United States and Russia, as the world's two most powerful nuclear powers, is especially important for global security. While the US and Russia frequently disagree on crucial topics that affect their national interests, the inherent potential of armed confrontation between the world's two most powerful nuclear powers necessitates that both countries endeavor to lessen this risk.

This study has provided threats to humanity that demands urgent attention. The Covid-19 pandemic as added on to these ongoing threats. Thus, resetting US-Russia relation is imperative now more than ever. This paper has looked at key threats facing humanity and pushing individuals below the poverty line and exacerbating inequality, violence and conflict. The paper has provided history of achievements chalked through US-Russia cooperation and argue that resetting relations between the two countries would offer concrete solutions to this rising threats. Fortunately, there are areas of collaboration where both countries can collaborate and establish trust without jeopardizing basic interests that are at the heart of current disputes.

¹ https://history.state.gov/milestones/1937-1945/us-soviet

² https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/u-s-extends-new-start-nuclear-treaty-russia-5-years-n1256625

³ https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/23/skripal-salisbury-poisoning-decline-of-russia-spy-agencies-gru

⁴ https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/text

⁵ Arms Control Association, Federation of American Scientists, International Panel on Fissile Materials, U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Department of State, and Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

⁶ https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/unsc_res1929-2010.pdf

⁷ http://unscr.com/en/resolutions/1874

⁸ https://www.fbi.gov/history/famous-cases/911-investigation

⁹ http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/europe/09/01/russia.timeline/index.html

¹⁰ http://abcnews.go.com/alerts/boko-haram

¹¹ Department Of Homeland Security Strategic Framework For Countering Terrorism And Targeted Violence 2019

¹² https://www.rferl.org/a/us-russia-cia-helped-thwart-petersburg-attack/28923277.html

¹³ https://www.who.int/governance/eb/who_constitution_en.pdf

¹⁴ Between States of Matter Competition and Cooperation Munich Security Report 2021

¹⁵ https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/06/20/how-to-reset-u.s.-russian-relations-today-pub-79352

¹⁶ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/weather/2021/04/11/severe-storms-damage-power-outages-tornadoes/7184052002/

¹⁷ https://www.forbes.com/sites/palashghosh/2021/03/25/experts-estimate-ship-stuck-in-suez-is-blocking-96-billion-in-maritime-traffic-each-dayheres-why-actual-losses-are-harder-to-quantify/?sh=69ef3fa8c944

¹⁸ IPCC,  2021: Summary  for Policymakers. In:  Climate  Change  2021:  The  Physical  Science  Basis. Contribution  of  Working  Group  I  to  the  Sixth  Assessment  Report  of  the  Intergovernmental  Panel  on  Climate Change  [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S. L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb,  M.  I.  Gomis,  M.  Huang,  K.  Leitzell,  E.  Lonnoy,  J.B.R.  Matthews,  T.  K.  Maycock,  T.  Waterfield, O.  Yelekçi,  R.  Yu  and  B.  Zhou  (eds.)].  Cambridge  University  Press.  In  Press.

¹⁹ Rigaud, Kanta Kumari; de Sherbinin, Alex; Jones, Bryan; Bergmann, Jonas; Clement, Viviane; Ober, Kayly; Schewe, Jacob; Adamo, Susana; McCusker, Brent; Heuser, Silke; Midgley, Amelia. 2018. Groundswell : Preparing for Internal Climate Migration. World Bank, Washington, DC. © World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/29461 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”

²⁰ https://unfccc.int/process/the-paris-agreement/status-of-ratification

²¹https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57423008

²² 20 2 1 Sonicwall Cyber Threat Report Cyber threat intelligence for navigating today’s business reality

²³ https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/coronavirus

²⁴ chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/viewer.html?pdfurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.mofep.gov.gh%2Fsites%2Fdefault%2Ffiles%2Fnews%2Fcare-program.pdf&clen=6718528&chunk=true

²⁵ https://acleddata.com/#/dashboard

²⁶ Megan Price, Anita Gohdes, Patrick Ball, “Updated Statistical Analysis of Documentation of Killings in the Syrian Arab Republic,” UN OHCHR,  August 2014,  http://www.ohchr.org/documents/countries/sy/ hrdagupdatedreportaug2014.pdf. See also “UN Says Over 200,000 Dead in Syria Civil War,” World News,  October 16, 2014, http://www. worldnewsenespanol.com/309_hispanic-world/2752216_u-n-tally-says-over200-000-deaths-in-syria-civil-war.html.

²⁷ United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs,  http://www.unocha.org/syria

²⁸ “UN Calls Syria ‘Worst Humanitarian Disaster’ since Cold War,” Christian Science Monitor,  June 20, 2013, http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/ForeignPolicy/2013/0620/World-Refugee-Day-UN-calls-Syria-worst-humanitariandisaster-since-cold-war.

Об авторах

Rex Sarpong

Автор, ответственный за переписку.
Email: oseirex@icloud.com
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4421-8875

Rex Osei Sarpong is a candidate of Science at Samara University, Institute of Economics and Management. He previously worked at the Ministry of Gender, Children and Social Protection as a Special Aide to the Minister. In his roles at the Ministry, Sarpong assisted with the LEAP Programme and the Child Protection Compact (CPC) Partnership between
the U.S and Ghana.

He founded the Eban Centre for Human Trafficking Studies. A Centre that investigates and develops policies and programmes to curtail the progress of transnational organized crimes, especially human trafficking.

Sarpong holds a special passion in the study of International Relations, especially bilateralism. He is currently researching about U.S-Russia Relations. He seeks to gain a deeper understanding into this aloofness and or post-cold war honeymoon gymnastics between the two countries. This he believes would enhance policy formulation in defense, energy and security.

He is a graduate of Peoples Friendship University of Russia, with a BA in Economics and Sociology. 

Current Affiliation: Candidate of Science for Political Science at Samara University.

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